Randall J. Jones, Jr.

Dr. Randall JonesDepartment of Political Science
102-D Liberal Arts Building
University of Central Oklahoma
Edmond, OK  73034
phone: 405-974-5270
email:  ranjones@uco.edu

Biographic Sketch

Randall J. Jones, Jr. (PhD University of Texas at Austin) is Professor of Political Science at the University of Central Oklahoma.  Previously, he was Chair of the political science department and served as Assistant Dean of the College of Liberal Arts. 

Jones's current research interests relate to political forecasting, particularly predicting election outcomes.  He also has published studies on forecasting political risks encountered by U. S. oil companies abroad.  He is author of Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections (Longman, 2002) and is co-editor of 21 Debated: Issues in World Politics (Prentice-Hall 2000, 2004).  Jones chaired the  organizing committee of the Political Forecasting Group, a Related Group of the American Political Science Association since 2006, and served as the group's Secretary-Treasurer.  He is a collaborator in the PollyVote.com election forecasting web site and is a member of the editorial board of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

Jones has been designated Oklahoma Political Science Scholar of the Year and Oklahoma Political Science Teacher of the Year, both awards of the Oklahoma Political Science Association, of which he has been president.  At UCO Jones has been a Herbert Hauptman faculty research fellow and is director of the interdisciplinary minor in Global Studies.  He previously served on the Board of Directors of the World Affairs Council of Central Oklahoma and of the United Nations Association, Oklahoma City chapter.

Recent Research

"Reliable Forecasts of the 2012 Presidential Election."  2012.  Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.  No. 26, Summer, pp. 41-44.

"Combining Within and Across Methods for Greater Accuracy in Presidential Elections Forecasting."  2011.  With Alfred G. Cuzán, Andreas Graefe, and J. Scott Armstrong.  Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, September.

"Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces."  2010.  With J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Malcolm J. Wright. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. Vol. 22, Winter, pp. 511-522.

Revision of paper presented [by Armstrong and Green] at the 28th International   Symposium on Forecasting. Nice, France. June 23, 2008.

This project is described in Constance Holden, "Presidential Face-Off," Science, 2 November 2007, p. 723.      

"Political Forecasting."  2010.  In G. T. Kurian, ed. Encyclopedia of Political Science. Invited article. Washington: CQ Press.

"Expert Judgment in Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation."  2010.  With Alfred G. Cuzán.  Paper presented at the Bucharest Dialogues on Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective.  Bucharest, Romania, November.

"The State of Presidential Election Forecasting: The 2004 Experience."  2009.   International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 24, April-June. pp. 308-319.

Revision of papers presented at the International Symposiums on Forecasting,   2007 [New York] and 2005 [San Antonio])

"Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election."  2009.  With Alfred G. Cuzán.  Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.  No. 12, Winter, p. 43.

"Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote."  2009.  With Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Alfred G. Cuzán.  Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.  No. 12, Winter, pp. 41-42.

"Teaching Electoral Behavior and Political Research Methods Through a Course on Election Forecasting."  2009.  Poster presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, September.

"Combining Forecasts for U. S. Presidential Elections: The PollyVote."  2009.  With Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, and J. Scott Armstrong.  A modified version presented by Armstrong at the 29th International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June. 

Courses Offered in the Current Rotation

International Conflict 

Election Forecasting

Espionage and Intelligence

Forecasting for Public Managers

Introduction to World Politics

American National Government